%% AI infrastructure value chain, bottom-up (as of 2026-09-30). Red=shortage, amber=tight, green=balanced.
flowchart BT
  subgraph P["1 Power & fuel"]
    NUC["Nuclear: CEG VST TLN OKLO SMR | fuel CCJ LEU"]:::short
    GAS["Gas: turbines GEV Siemens Energy MHI | IPPs VST NRG CEG | EQT"]:::short
    REN["Renewables+storage: NEE FSLR ENPH TSLA FLNC"]:::tight
    ONS["On-site/fuel cells: BE | coal = delayed retirements"]:::tight
    GRID["Grid equipment: ETN VRT PWR HUBB GEV (transformers ~128 wk)"]:::short
  end
  subgraph R["2 Regional supply vs demand"]
    PJM["PJM: cap $325/MW-day, 6.8 GW short (Jul-26) - D AEP EXC"]:::short
    ERC["ERCOT: 400+ GW large-load requests - VST NRG"]:::short
    OTH["MISO/SE/SPP/West tight - SO DUK ETR XEL NEE | CAISO ok | Intl: IE NO Gulf Asia"]:::tight
  end
  DC["3 Data centers & cooling: EQIX DLR IREN CRWV NBIS APLD VRT MOD Schneider"]:::tight
  subgraph S["4 Semiconductors"]
    ACC["Accelerators: NVDA AMD AVGO MRVL TPU Trainium INTC"]:::tight
    FAB["Foundry & tools: TSM INTC Samsung | ASML AMAT LRCX KLAC TEL"]:::tight
    PKG["CoWoS/packaging & test: TSM AMKR | FORM TER"]:::short
  end
  MEM["5 Memory: HBM/DRAM/NAND - MU SK Hynix Samsung SNDK WDC STX (sold out)"]:::short
  NET["6 Networking/optics: ANET AVGO NVDA CSCO CIEN COHR LITE ALAB CRDO CLS GLW"]:::short
  SRV["7 Servers: SMCI DELL HPE CLS Foxconn Quanta"]:::tight
  CLD["8 Cloud: MSFT AMZN GOOGL META ORCL + CRWV NBIS (~$720-745B 2026 capex)"]:::tight
  LAB["9 AI labs: xAI via SPCX | OpenAI via MSFT | Anthropic via AMZN GOOGL | DeepMind | Meta"]:::tight
  APP["10 Apps & security: PLTR CRM NOW CRWD SNOW MDB"]:::ok
  NUC & GAS & REN & ONS --> GRID
  GRID --> PJM & ERC & OTH
  PJM & ERC & OTH --> DC
  FAB --> PKG
  MEM --> PKG
  PKG --> ACC
  ACC & NET --> SRV
  DC & SRV --> CLD
  CLD --> LAB --> APP
  classDef short fill:#4a1c1c,stroke:#ff5c5c,color:#fff
  classDef tight fill:#4a3a12,stroke:#f5b841,color:#fff
  classDef ok fill:#123a2a,stroke:#3ecf8e,color:#fff